Four years since the start of its ‘Euromaidan’ revolution, Ukraine is fighting for its survival as an independent and viable state. Ukrainians took to the streets in late 2013 in protest at their government’s suspension, under pressure from Russia, of plans for a closer relationship with the European Union. While their activism forced President Viktor Yanukovych from power and heralded a more EU-aligned foreign policy under a new government, it also prompted a hostile response from Russia, which annexed Crimea in early 2014, started a territorial conflict in eastern Ukraine, and continues to try to fragment and enfeeble its neighbour.
This report is partly about Ukraine’s struggle to hold together and resist Russia’s
interference and pressure – in the military, diplomatic, economic and media spheres.
But it is also about a related internal contest to determine the political, institutional
and civic future of Ukraine. In broader terms the Euromaidan was a response as much
to poor domestic governance and corruption as to thwarted ambitions for European
integration per se. In this context, the ‘struggle’ in the title of this report refers to the
challenges of internal reform – challenges which pit, broadly speaking, modernizing
forces sympathetic to European norms against the entrenched conservatism of vested
interests in political and business elites. Fending off Russia and delivering on policy
reforms in a wide range of areas (including those related to European integration)
are the two defining challenges that Ukraine faces today.
This report recognizes Ukraine’s considerable achievements since the Euromaidan.
The country has not succumbed, despite grievous loss of life and territory, to
Russian military aggression. It has sealed a landmark Association Agreement with
the EU, opening up economic opportunity and making it clear that it sees itself as
a fundamentally ‘European’ country rather than a Russian satellite or tributary. And
it has undertaken deeper and more extensive reform in the past four years than in the
previous 22 of its post-Soviet life. This has included efforts to challenge a deep-seated
culture of corruption and rent-seeking, improve public-sector transparency, and reduce
risks to financial stability and economic distortions in the energy sector. Civil society’s
contribution to many of these endeavours has been crucial. Ukraine’s future and
fate hinge upon a transformation of the relationship between citizens, the economy
and the state. Both national security and political legitimacy are at stake.
While acknowledging Ukraine’s accomplishments, this report forensically
scrutinizesthose areas in which the leadership is failing to live up to the expectations
of its own people, or to meet its new commitments under the EU Association Agreement.
Resistance to reform remains widespread even among those in high office, and there
are recent signs that anti-progressive forces are becoming emboldened in their attempts
to block or dilute the policies Ukraine needs to develop its economy, establish a truly
independent judiciary and provide meaningful deterrents to corruption.
The West’s credibility and cohesion are also at stake. The international community
has invested heavily in Ukraine’s future and spent billions of dollars on supporting
the country, while rejecting the Russian claim to primacy in deciding Ukraine’s
geopolitical alignment and domestic political arrangement. This report puts forward
recommendations to ensure credibility is retained (or strengthened) through adherence
to the principles of the post-Cold War order, and through strictly conditional
financial assistance.
Chatham House Report
REPORT
https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/publications/research/2017-10-18-struggle-for-ukraine-ash-gunn-lough-lutsevych-nixey-sherr-wolczuk.pdf
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