Skip to main content

Chatham House Report . The Struggle for Ukraine



Four years since the start of its ‘Euromaidan’ revolution, Ukraine is fighting for its survival as an independent and viable state. Ukrainians took to the streets in late 2013 in protest at their government’s suspension, under pressure from Russia, of plans for a closer relationship with the European Union. While their activism forced President Viktor Yanukovych from power and heralded a more EU-aligned foreign policy under a new government, it also prompted a hostile response from Russia, which annexed Crimea in early 2014, started a territorial conflict in eastern Ukraine, and continues to try to fragment and enfeeble its neighbour. 

This report is partly about Ukraine’s struggle to hold together and resist Russia’s interference and pressure – in the military, diplomatic, economic and media spheres. But it is also about a related internal contest to determine the political, institutional and civic future of Ukraine. In broader terms the Euromaidan was a response as much to poor domestic governance and corruption as to thwarted ambitions for European integration per se. In this context, the ‘struggle’ in the title of this report refers to the challenges of internal reform – challenges which pit, broadly speaking, modernizing forces sympathetic to European norms against the entrenched conservatism of vested interests in political and business elites. Fending off Russia and delivering on policy reforms in a wide range of areas (including those related to European integration) are the two defining challenges that Ukraine faces today. 

This report recognizes Ukraine’s considerable achievements since the Euromaidan. The country has not succumbed, despite grievous loss of life and territory, to Russian military aggression. It has sealed a landmark Association Agreement with the EU, opening up economic opportunity and making it clear that it sees itself as a fundamentally ‘European’ country rather than a Russian satellite or tributary. And it has undertaken deeper and more extensive reform in the past four years than in the previous 22 of its post-Soviet life. This has included efforts to challenge a deep-seated culture of corruption and rent-seeking, improve public-sector transparency, and reduce risks to financial stability and economic distortions in the energy sector. Civil society’s contribution to many of these endeavours has been crucial. Ukraine’s future and fate hinge upon a transformation of the relationship between citizens, the economy and the state. Both national security and political legitimacy are at stake. While acknowledging Ukraine’s accomplishments, this report forensically scrutinizesthose areas in which the leadership is failing to live up to the expectations of its own people, or to meet its new commitments under the EU Association Agreement. Resistance to reform remains widespread even among those in high office, and there are recent signs that anti-progressive forces are becoming emboldened in their attempts to block or dilute the policies Ukraine needs to develop its economy, establish a truly independent judiciary and provide meaningful deterrents to corruption. The West’s credibility and cohesion are also at stake. The international community has invested heavily in Ukraine’s future and spent billions of dollars on supporting the country, while rejecting the Russian claim to primacy in deciding Ukraine’s geopolitical alignment and domestic political arrangement. This report puts forward recommendations to ensure credibility is retained (or strengthened) through adherence to the principles of the post-Cold War order, and through strictly conditional financial assistance.

Chatham House Report
REPORT
https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/publications/research/2017-10-18-struggle-for-ukraine-ash-gunn-lough-lutsevych-nixey-sherr-wolczuk.pdf

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

THE KREMLIN’S IRREGULAR ARMY: UKRAINIAN SEPARATIST ORDER OF BATTLE

The Kremlin’s political-military campaign in Eastern Ukraine threatens both Kyiv and the rest of Europe three years after Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea. The Kremlin – in violation of its obligations under the ‘Minsk II’ ceasefire agreements – has fueled the conflict in pursuit of its grand strategic objective to assert dominance over the former Soviet Union. Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown no desire to withdraw his forces despite his failure to develop proxy forces capable of independently extending his campaign of subversion across Ukraine. Putin will continue to extend and exploit the war to destabilize Ukraine and prevent its further integration with the West until faced with costs that change his calculus. This paper demonstrates that Russia’s proxy forces operating in Eastern Ukraine - the Donetsk (DNR) and Luhansk (LNR) Peoples’ Republics - continue to pose a threat to the security of Ukraine and Europe. These proxies only retain the capability to fight th...

Politically Exposed Persons: new public database will help financial institutions all over the world to identify high-risk clients from Ukraine

Ukrainian activists has announced the launch of publicly available Register of Politically Exposed Persons – pep.org.ua, an exclusive public online database designed to help to withstand money laundering from state Ukrainian budget through international banks. Register will help international financial institutions to understand whether their current and potential clients from Ukraine are so called politically exposed persons (PEPs) or their close associates whose transactions should be checked with an enhanced due diligence according to Financial Action Task Force Anti-Money Laundering recommendations. Register is a tool developed by the Anti-corruption Action Centre – NGO which carries out anticorruption investigations of abuses on tender procurement procedures and money laundering schemes of Ukrainian officials. It already contains over 10 000 of records of individuals and and 2,500 of legal entities, among with 2409 – of state Ukrainian enterprises and 172 – private ...

A $250 000 bribe and 40 court hearings

A case against Serhiy Golovatiy in February 2016 became one of the two that were mentioned by the President Petro Poroshenko in his letters to the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine, Prosecutor General’s Office and the Cabinet of Ministers calling to actively engage against corruption. Since April 2016 – the case has been in Podil District Court of Kyiv city. Since then there have been around 40 hearings. On the one hand, compared to other cases – this one shows good dynamics. On the other hand – taking into account how creative the defense is in dragging the process, it will take long to come to an end. In Spring of this year the court finished researching the evidence provided by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine and the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office. In particular, the court was provided with videos showing how former Head of the Unit of State Expertise of Dual-Use Goods of the Department for State Expertise of the State Service of Exports...